Consider the following statements:
1. India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped below replacement level in all states.
2. The proportion of people aged 60 and older will increase more in the Northern states than in the Southern states.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 only
(b) 2 only
(c) Both 1 and 2
(d) Neither 1 nor 2
Explanation
India’s demographic landscape is characterized by significant regional variations in fertility rates and the distribution of its elderly population. Understanding these disparities is crucial for policymakers to address the unique challenges and opportunities presented by the country’s demographic transition.
Statement 1 is not correct: The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is a critical indicator that measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years. A TFR of 2.1 is considered the replacement level, meaning the population size remains stable, excluding migration effects.
As of recent data, India’s overall TFR has declined to 2.0, which is below the replacement level. However, this national average masks significant regional disparities. While 31 out of 36 states and Union Territories have achieved a TFR at or below the replacement level, five states continue to exhibit higher fertility rates:
● Bihar: TFR of 2.98
● Meghalaya: TFR of 2.91
● Uttar Pradesh: TFR of 2.35
● Jharkhand: TFR of 2.26
● Manipur: TFR of 2.17
Statement 2 is not correct: The statement that the proportion of people aged 60 and older will increase more in the Northern states than in the Southern states is incorrect. Demographic data shows that Southern states in India are experiencing a faster rise in their elderly population compared to Northern states.
For instance, Kerala had the highest proportion of elderly people in India at 16.5% in 2021, which is projected to rise to 20.9% by 2031. Similarly, Tamil Nadu’s median age is expected to increase from around 30 years in 2011 to over 40 years by 2036, highlighting significant aging trends .
In contrast, many Northern states still have younger populations and higher fertility rates, leading to a slower rate of increase in the elderly demographic. This data confirms that the aging population is expanding more rapidly in the Southern states than in the Northern states of India.
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