Western disturbances are extra-tropical storms that originate in the Mediterranean region. These systems move eastward, bringing moisture-laden winds to Northern India, especially during the winter months. They play a crucial role in maintaining seasonal rainfall, glacier mass balance, and soil moisture levels, which are essential for the region's agricultural productivity.
The primary Indian states influenced by western disturbances include Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and parts of Uttarakhand. These regions rely significantly on these disturbances for winter rainfall, crucial for the rabi cropping season.
Western disturbances bring necessary winter rainfall that supports the growth of rabi crops such as wheat, mustard, chickpea, and barley. This rainfall helps retain soil moisture and reduces the dependency on groundwater irrigation, ensuring stable yields in areas that are rain-fed or partially irrigated.
A decrease in winter rainfall due to fewer or weaker western disturbances can lead to reduced soil moisture. This has adverse effects on crops like wheat, which require water during the grain formation stage, resulting in lower yields and shriveled grains. Similarly, mustard crops, sensitive during the flowering and seed-setting stages, also suffer from inadequate moisture.
For example, in years with weak disturbances, wheat farmers in Punjab and Haryana have reported yield drops of 10–20%, forcing them to rely on expensive irrigation methods.
Lower production of essential crops like wheat and mustard poses threats to food buffer stocks and price stability. Reduced wheat procurement by the Food Corporation of India can strain the Public Distribution System. Increased imports of wheat or edible oils pressure foreign exchange reserves, and farmers face rising input costs for irrigation, pushing marginal farmers into debt.
For instance, a recent dry winter led to a 15% drop in mustard output in states like Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, affecting farmer incomes and raising market prices for mustard oil.
Climate change has made western disturbances less predictable. Snowmelt in the Himalayas now occurs earlier, weakening the overall water cycle. Recent studies show these storms are extending into summer months like May and June, deviating from their typical December to March period. The frequency of such disturbances in June has doubled in the last 20 years compared to the previous 50 years.
In May 2025, Delhi recorded 77 mm of rainfall in one day due to a strong western disturbance. This was the second-highest rainfall for May since 1901, causing unseasonal rains that delayed harvests, damaged standing crops, and affected sowing preparations.
To respond to these shifting weather patterns, India should encourage climate-resilient agriculture by developing crop varieties that require less water. Investing in better weather prediction and advisories can help farmers make informed decisions. Expanding micro-irrigation systems can reduce dependence on erratic rainfall, while strengthening crop insurance and procurement mechanisms can buffer farmers from climate shocks.
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