Bangladesh is currently experiencing significant political unrest marked by widespread violence. The return of Tarique Rahman, acting chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), after 17 years in exile has escalated tensions. This situation has also coincided with increasing anti-India rhetoric, raising concerns for regional stability.
The unrest that began in July–August 2024 is often viewed as a spontaneous uprising. However, evidence suggests it is a planned operation aimed at regime change. Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh’s chief adviser, acknowledged this in September, implicating a close aide as the strategist behind these movements. The Jamaat-e-Islami, historically aligned with Pakistan, has emerged as a significant force in this upheaval, exerting considerable influence over the current administration.
A critical goal of the current turmoil is to dismantle the political legacy established post-1971. Since August 5, 2024, there has been a targeted attack on symbols and institutions associated with the Liberation War and the Awami League, signaling an effort to reshape national memory and politics.
The ongoing turmoil has also led to severe repression of minorities, with a noticeable shift towards Islamisation in governance. Communities such as Hindus, Buddhists, Christians, and Ahmadiyyas have faced direct attacks, including allegations of violence, property destruction, and land seizures. The brutal lynching of Dipu Chandra Das has drawn international condemnation, highlighting the severity of the situation.
The Jamaat-e-Islami's rise to power has been accompanied by violent methods of control. This includes mobocracy, where crowds intimidate officials until their demands are met, and institutional capture, with Jamaat-aligned individuals replacing incumbents across various sectors. Furthermore, media suppression has surged, evidenced by attacks on journalists and outlets like Prothom Alo and The Daily Star.
This political turmoil has severely disrupted decades of economic cooperation with India, which thrived under Sheikh Hasina's leadership. Bangladesh's economy, which previously grew at 6.5–7% annually for 15 years, has now experienced a sharp decline, with growth halved, rising unemployment, factory closures, and high inflation.
Rahman's return is viewed as a potential catalyst for change in the political landscape. However, with the Awami League barred from participating, any forthcoming elections may lack legitimacy. Although public support for Rahman may surge due to sympathy for his ailing mother, the fragmented nature of the BNP and the strengthened position of Jamaat complicate his prospects for electoral victory.
Anti-India sentiment has long been part of Bangladesh's political fabric, dating back to 1971, with about 20% of the population opposing India’s role in the Liberation War. Despite the historical undercurrents, India-Bangladesh relations have been characterized by deep economic ties and strong people-to-people connections.
India must focus on reassuring the Bangladeshi populace, rather than just engaging with the current regime. Continuation of aid and trade, along with strategic restraint, remains vital. Furthermore, India should advocate for inclusive elections to ensure legitimacy and stability in Bangladesh, as exclusion risks further violence.
Bangladesh's cooperation with India has been instrumental for its economic success, with India being a reliable partner during crises. Despite the current regime's outreach to Pakistan, China, and Turkey, none can match the depth of support provided by India.
Bangladesh holds strategic significance for India due to shared borders and historical ties. Cooperation is essential to address security concerns, especially given past issues with terrorism and insurgency in the region.
Q1. What triggered the recent political turmoil in Bangladesh?
Answer: The recent turmoil in Bangladesh was triggered by a combination of planned operations for regime change and the return of Tarique Rahman, intensifying existing tensions and unrest.
Q2. How has minority repression manifested in Bangladesh?
Answer: Minority repression has been evident through increased violence, property destruction, and land grabs targeting communities such as Hindus and Christians, highlighting a troubling trend towards Islamisation.
Q3. What role does Jamaat-e-Islami play in the current situation?
Answer: Jamaat-e-Islami has emerged as a significant force in the political turmoil, consolidating power through violence, mobocracy, and media suppression, thus influencing the current administration.
Q4. How has the economic situation in Bangladesh changed recently?
Answer: The economic situation has deteriorated sharply, with growth halving, rising unemployment, factory closures, and high inflation disrupting the long-standing cooperation with India.
Q5. Why is India-Bangladesh cooperation important?
Answer: Cooperation is vital for Bangladesh's economic stability and for India’s security interests, given the shared borders and past challenges with terrorism and insurgency in the region.
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