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Understanding the El Nino Effect on India's Monsoon

Analyzing Weather Patterns and Their Consequences

Understanding the El Nino Effect on India's Monsoon

  • 29 Aug, 2023
  • 374

The Impact of El Nino on India's Monsoon

The ongoing El Nino weather phenomenon is significantly affecting the southwest monsoon in India. As a result, there has been a notable deficiency in rainfall during the first half of August 2023, contrasting sharply with the 6% monsoon surplus observed by the end of July.

Dry Spell and Rainfall Deficit

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported an unusual 11-day dry spell in key areas of central India. This extended dry period has contributed to a nationwide rainfall deficit of 6%. Forecasts suggest that this dry spell may continue for an additional 3 to 4 days, further straining water resources.

Understanding El Nino's Role

El Nino events are characterized by elevated sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Such conditions often lead to weaker monsoon patterns in India, impacting agriculture and water supply.

Historical Context of Dry Spells

Experts have pointed out that prolonged dry spells are quite rare. The current 11-day break in monsoon activity is among the longest recorded in history. The previous records were set in 1972 and 2002, raising concerns about the implications for this year's agricultural output.

Monsoon Forecast for August

The IMD anticipates that rainfall will remain weaker across most parts of India in the upcoming days. However, central and eastern regions are expected to see a resumption of rainfall activities around August 17, offering some relief.

Global Implications of El Nino

Looking beyond India, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts that the effects of El Nino are likely to influence weather patterns in the southern hemisphere, particularly from September to November 2023. This global perspective highlights the interconnectedness of climate phenomena.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q1. What is the current status of the southwest monsoon in India?
Answer: The southwest monsoon is experiencing a significant rainfall deficit due to the ongoing El Nino phenomenon, with a notable 11-day dry spell reported in central India.

Q2. How does El Nino affect India's weather patterns?
Answer: El Nino leads to elevated sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, which typically results in weaker monsoon conditions in India, causing reduced rainfall and dry spells.

Q3. When will normal rainfall resume in India?
Answer: The Indian Meteorological Department forecasts that rainfall activity is expected to resume around August 17 in central and eastern regions of India.

Q4. What historical significance does the current dry spell hold?
Answer: The current 11-day dry spell is one of the longest recorded, highlighting its rarity and potential impact on agricultural practices.

Q5. What global effects are anticipated from this El Nino event?
Answer: The Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts that the El Nino impact will likely influence weather patterns in the southern hemisphere between September and November 2023.

UPSC Practice MCQs

Question 1: What phenomenon is currently affecting India's southwest monsoon?
A) La Nina
B) Cyclone
C) El Nino
D) Monsoon Surge
Correct Answer: C

Question 2: How long is the current dry spell reported in central India?
A) 5 days
B) 7 days
C) 11 days
D) 14 days
Correct Answer: C

Question 3: When is rainfall activity expected to resume in central and eastern India?
A) August 10
B) August 15
C) August 17
D) August 20
Correct Answer: C

Question 4: What does El Nino typically cause in terms of rainfall in India?
A) Increased rainfall
B) No impact
C) Weaker monsoons
D) Heavy storms
Correct Answer: C

Question 5: Which organization forecasts the global impacts of El Nino?
A) NASA
B) IMD
C) Australian Bureau of Meteorology
D) World Meteorological Organization
Correct Answer: C

Question 6: What was the previous record for the longest dry spell before the current one?
A) 1965
B) 1972
C) 1980
D) 2002
Correct Answer: B

Question 7: What is the rainfall deficit percentage reported by IMD currently?
A) 4%
B) 6%
C) 8%
D) 10%
Correct Answer: B

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