As of the current financial year, GST collections have reached over ₹9.92 lakh crore, reflecting an 11.1% increase compared to the same timeframe last year. The average monthly revenue stands at ₹1,65,418 crore, indicating a robust flow of funds.
Despite the overall positive trend, there are signs of a slowdown in GST inflows. The growth rate fell to 10.2% in September, marking the slowest growth since July 2021. Additionally, the average growth rate decreased to 10.6% in the second quarter from 11.5% in the first quarter.
Recent compliance measures have had significant effects on GST collections. The introduction of mandatory e-invoicing for businesses with a turnover exceeding ₹5 crore has been a pivotal change. Moreover, revenues for September included pending dues dating back to the 2017-18 period. These factors must be analyzed separately to accurately assess the actual growth in GST collections.
In terms of e-way bills, a record 9.34 crore were generated in August. However, this surge did not correspond to the highest revenue earnings, suggesting that the sizes of transactions may have diminished.
There are notable inconsistencies in the revenues derived from goods imports. Although imports reached a nine-month high in August, the revenues collected in September were 5.7% lower than the previous month. This discrepancy indicates potential revenue leakages that warrant further investigation.
From a fiscal perspective, the government appears to be in a relatively comfortable position regarding GST revenues. However, a moderation in inflows is anticipated during the first quarter of 2024, coinciding with expected slowdowns in GDP growth.
The GST Council is set to convene to examine these trends and address the areas of concern that have emerged from the current data.
In a broader economic context, the central bank projects real GDP growth to decelerate to 5.7% in the first quarter of 2024, down from 7.8% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year. This anticipated slowdown may have further implications for GST collections and overall economic health.
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