The conflict centers on the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but primarily populated by ethnic Armenians. The two countries fought wars in the early 1990s and again in 2020, with Azerbaijan recapturing the territory in September 2023.
The deal establishes a permanent ceasefire, requires both nations to respect each other’s territorial integrity, and normalizes diplomatic relations. It also creates the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP)—a transit corridor through Armenian territory connecting Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave.
The US gains exclusive development rights to the strategic transit corridor, creating economic opportunities for American companies and enhancing US influence in the South Caucasus. It also reflects Armenia’s strategic pivot away from Russia toward the West.
The deal significantly reduces Russian influence in the South Caucasus. Armenia moves away from its traditional alliance with Moscow, sidelining Russia’s role as a regional mediator and peacekeeping force.
The transit corridor will facilitate trade between Europe and Asia, potentially generating significant revenue. American companies are expected to lead infrastructure development, while Armenia and Azerbaijan gain access to new economic partnerships with the US.
Many Armenians view the agreement with bitterness because it formalizes Azerbaijan’s control over Nagorno-Karabakh, ending Armenian claims to the territory where nearly 100,000 ethnic Armenians lived before fleeing in 2023.
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