Understanding India's Diplomatic Setbacks Under Trump

1. Why is India feeling sidelined by the current US approach under Donald Trump?

India has faced a series of diplomatic setbacks under Trump’s second term, including:

• Repeated claims by Trump about mediating in the India-Pakistan conflict post-Operation Sindoor.
• Deportation of Indian migrants in chains.
• Imposition of 25% tariffs on Indian exports.
• Pressure to stop importing Russian oil and defence goods.
• Public insults describing India as the “king of tariffs.” These have created a perception of strategic humiliation and disregard for India’s sovereignty.

2. What does the US-Pakistan engagement under Trump look like?

• General Asim Munir’s White House visit symbolised renewed US-Pakistan military ties.
• The US concluded a deal to develop Pakistan’s oil reserves, hinting at future exports to India.
• Trump overlooked Indian efforts to isolate Pakistan on terrorism issues.
• India also lost the UNESCO Vice-Chair election to Pakistan with little support from Western allies.

3. How has India traditionally aligned itself in foreign policy?

Since the 1990s, India has moved closer to the US, driven by economic liberalisation and geopolitical goals.

• Stayed neutral on US military actions (e.g., in Gaza).
• Built Indian lobby groups in the US to promote ties.
• Shifted focus away from traditional Global South allies. This alignment is now being questioned.

4. Why is the US leaning back towards Pakistan’s military establishment?

• Pakistan historically served US strategic interests in West and Central Asia.
• It was part of SEATO and CENTO during the Cold War.
• Pakistan aided the US during the anti-Soviet Afghanistan campaign.
• Even post-9/11, Pakistan allowed US military operations from its soil.
• This strategic utility is being revived under Trump’s regional ambitions.

5. How does the US plan to balance India and Pakistan?

Trump’s approach views:

• India as a market for American goods and investments.
• Pakistan as a geopolitical tool to project US influence in Asia. India must accept being “paired” again with Pakistan in US calculations, something it has long resisted.

6. What are the wider geopolitical goals of the US in South Asia now?

• Reassert its role as a balancing power in South Asia.
• Prevent China from expanding unchecked influence via the China-Pakistan axis.
• Use Pakistan as a channel to reopen engagement with China, similar to the 1970s.
• Install friendly governments (e.g., in Pakistan and Bangladesh) that support US interests but may be indifferent or hostile towards India.

7. What lessons does India need to draw from this phase?

• Abandon over-reliance on hyper-nationalism in foreign affairs.
• Revisit principles of non-alignment, disarmament, and pro-Global South diplomacy.
• Diversify international relations and avoid viewing foreign policy only through the lens of Pakistan.
• Rebalance between Western engagement and South-South cooperation to retain autonomy.

8. What economic factors still bind India and the US?

• Nearly 18% of Indian exports go to the US.
• Indian students continue to dominate US university admissions.
• Indian tech and pharmaceutical firms are integrated with American supply chains. These dependencies keep both sides interested in maintaining basic diplomatic ties.

9. What is at risk if India continues on its current foreign policy path?

• Further diplomatic humiliation.
• Strategic isolation in key global forums.
• Compromised influence in South Asia and Global South blocs.
• Missed opportunities in fostering balanced multipolar relationships. India needs course correction to avoid becoming a pawn in larger imperial games.

10. What should India do going forward?

• Reduce strategic dependence on any one power bloc.
• Renew ties with traditional allies in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia.
• Enhance cooperation with neutral powers like France, Japan, and the EU.
• Maintain transactional ties with the US but assert national interests firmly and clearly.

Synopsis

Donald Trump’s recent actions and rhetoric have exposed the vulnerabilities of India’s US-aligned foreign policy. While the US courts Pakistan for strategic purposes, India faces public humiliation and diplomatic setbacks. The revived US-Pakistan ties mark a reversal of India’s hard-won position in the region. India must reassess its approach, reinforce ties within the Global South, and move towards a balanced, multipolar diplomacy that safeguards national interest.