Bangladesh has become the first South Asian country to join the UN Water Convention, a move aimed at strengthening water security and sustainable river management. This development, however, has raised strategic concerns in India regarding shifting regional water dynamics and future transboundary negotiations.
Bangladesh faces significant hydrological challenges, as it depends almost entirely on rivers that originate outside its borders. The country shares the complex Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basin with India and China, which is one of the world’s largest and most complicated transboundary river systems. Only about 7% of the watershed area of these rivers lies within Bangladesh, limiting its control over water flow and seasonal variations.
To strengthen its water security and improve basin-level negotiations, Bangladesh joined the UN Water Convention. Signing the Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes enables Bangladesh to seek international support for safeguarding and managing its rivers. However, India fears that this development may alter existing diplomatic balances in regional water-sharing frameworks.
India is concerned that Bangladesh’s membership in the Convention may weaken its bargaining position, especially with the Ganges Water Treaty set for renewal in 2026. This renewal could put additional pressure on eastern India, which is already experiencing increasing water stress.
The Convention could provide Bangladesh with a stronger legal and diplomatic platform to seek a larger share of river waters. Under the 1996 Ganges Treaty, both countries are guaranteed a minimum flow of 35,000 cusecs during the lean season. India fears that Bangladesh may now demand revisions to these allocations under international norms.
In September 2025, Bangladesh proposed creating a new institutional mechanism for managing water-sharing arrangements across 14 transboundary rivers. India viewed this proposal cautiously, interpreting it as a push to internationalize bilateral water negotiations.
India also worries that Bangladesh’s accession could inspire other neighboring countries—particularly Nepal and Bhutan—to join the Convention, which may collectively reshape regional water diplomacy. Additionally, before joining the Convention, Bangladesh announced a trilateral cooperation framework with China and Pakistan on economic, climatic, and social development issues. This has increased India’s concerns about geopolitical alignment and coordinated bargaining in water-related discussions.
Bangladesh’s entry into the UN Water Convention marks a significant evolution in South Asia’s transboundary water politics. While it strengthens Bangladesh’s ability to secure its water interests, it also presents strategic and diplomatic challenges for India. Managing these shifts through balanced engagement and updated water-sharing frameworks will be crucial for regional stability and cooperation.
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