La Niña is a significant climate phenomenon that occurs when there is a cooling of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This event has a profound impact on global weather patterns, leading to diverse climatic conditions in various regions, including India.
Typically, La Niña enhances the Indian monsoon by fortifying the easterly winds and augmenting moisture levels over the Indian Ocean. As a result, this leads to increased rainfall throughout the country, especially in the northern regions.
With expectations of intensifying La Niña conditions in September, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts that rainfall could exceed the monthly average by approximately 9%. This increase is attributed to heightened cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal, which is known to deliver substantial rain to northern parts of India.
The IMD's forecast suggests that regions such as Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, and Delhi are likely to experience significant rainfall due to the influence of La Niña. These areas may witness multiple rain episodes throughout September.
The weather models employed by the IMD for forecasting rainfall and cyclonic activity have seen improvements in accuracy, particularly for short-term predictions. Nonetheless, the precise timing and intensity of weather events can still fluctuate.
Generally, the monsoon begins its retreat by mid-September. However, owing to the anticipated heavy rainfall associated with La Niña, the withdrawal may be postponed. It remains too early to provide an exact forecast regarding this.
The Cyclonic Storm Asna has shifted away from the Gujarat coast and is presently located in the north-central Arabian Sea. It is expected to dissipate by September 2, presenting no further threat to the region.
Regarding the depression over the northwest Bay of Bengal, it is predicted to cross northern Andhra Pradesh. However, it is unlikely to develop into a cyclone. This system is still anticipated to bring considerable rainfall to the area.
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