The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is a 2015 agreement between Iran and six world powers—United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, and China—along with the European Union (EU). It aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.
Trump criticized the deal for failing to address Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional activities. He reimposed sanctions under a “maximum pressure” strategy, arguing that a tougher agreement was necessary.
Iran gradually violated JCPOA limits by increasing uranium enrichment. By 2019, it resumed key nuclear activities, arguing that the US broke its commitment first.
The EU, UK, France, and Germany attempted to keep the deal alive, introducing the INSTEX payment system to bypass US sanctions. However, the mechanism failed due to US financial dominance. Russia and China continued limited cooperation with Iran.
Iran is building nuclear weapons, which threatens regional security. Additionally, Iran is weakened by the decimation of Hezbollah, Hamas, and Syria. The Iranian economy is in crisis due to US sanctions and internal instability. Tehran faces inflation, energy shortages, and a falling currency, increasing its willingness to negotiate.
The EU has consistently supported diplomatic engagement with Iran and may act as a mediator in renewed discussions. European nations still favor a non-proliferation agreement to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
Russia and China opposed Trump’s withdrawal and continued limited trade with Iran despite sanctions. Both countries may push for a deal that weakens US influence while maintaining their ties with Iran.
The Middle East has changed since 2018, with the US-brokered Abraham Accords and improving Iran-Gulf ties. However, conflicts like the Israel-Hamas war and Yemen crisis complicate negotiations.
Israel remains firmly opposed to any deal that does not fully dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Covert Israeli operations targeting Iranian nuclear sites have continued, increasing tensions.
A revised agreement might impose stricter controls on Iran’s nuclear program and missile development while offering phased sanctions relief. It would likely address security concerns raised by the US and its allies.
Iran seeks relief from crippling US and EU sanctions, which have severely damaged its economy. The West may use sanctions as leverage for stronger nuclear restrictions.
A new agreement could stabilize oil markets, reduce regional tensions, and improve US-Europe relations. However, opposition from Israel and certain Gulf states may complicate its implementation.
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