The Dependency on China in Indian Agriculture

1. What Is the Main Concern Regarding China’s Role in Indian Agriculture?

India’s agriculture—especially its horticulture sector—has become heavily dependent on China for critical inputs such as water-soluble fertilizers (WSFs). These fertilizers are essential for crops like grapes, bananas, and pomegranates. However, recent export restrictions and regulatory barriers imposed by China have disrupted supplies, driving up prices and creating uncertainty among Indian farmers.

2. Which Inputs Does India Import from China?

India relies significantly on China for key agricultural inputs, including:

• Mono Ammonium Phosphate (MAP): Enhances flowering and fruit setting.
• Mono Potassium Phosphate (MKP): Improves berry size and resistance to cracking.
• Potassium Nitrate (PN): Aids fruit formation and firmness.
• Water-Soluble Fertilizers (WSFs): Crucial for drip irrigation systems in polyhouse crops.
• Agrochemicals: China supplies raw materials for a majority of Indian pesticide and herbicide producers.

3. How Has China Disrupted Supply?

• China has invoked the Customs Inspection Quarantine (CIQ) procedure to delay or restrict exports of fertilizers and agrochemicals.
• Imports of MAP from China have dropped by over 80% between 2023 and 2024.
• Indian manufacturers report increasing difficulty in sourcing essential Chinese inputs.
• Certain herbicides and chemicals are now restricted or banned, further tightening supply.

4. Why Is This Economically Significant?

• Horticulture contributes around 33% of India’s agricultural GDP.
• High-value export crops such as grapes, bananas, and tomatoes are highly sensitive to fertilizer quality.
• Rising input costs reduce India’s global competitiveness in the agri-export market.
• Current fertilizer subsidy policies favor bulk urea over specialty fertilizers needed for horticulture.

5. What Are the Risks of Chinese Monopoly?

• China controls over 80% of India’s WSF imports.
• Delays or shortages in supply can lower crop yields and impact export earnings.
• Chinese corporations, including Syngenta and Adama, dominate much of the global agrochemical value chain.
• If genetically modified (GM) Basmati is approved, Chinese firms could gain control over seeds and input markets as well.

6. Are There Any Domestic Alternatives?

Yes, though the capacity remains limited:

• Indian firms like IFFCO are developing local manufacturing capacity and exploring alternative sourcing routes.
• Researchers at ICAR and the National Research Centre for Grapes emphasize the need for indigenous development of specialty fertilizers and seed varieties.
• India has successfully introduced drought-tolerant rice varieties and Direct Seeded Rice (DSR) technology to reduce dependence on imported inputs.

7. What Is the Way Forward?

• Promote domestic manufacturing of WSFs and micronutrients.
• Diversify import sources beyond China to include regions such as the Middle East and Russia.
• Increase investment in agricultural R&D to develop sustainable input substitutes.
• Revise fertilizer subsidy policies to support horticultural and specialty crops on par with staple grains.

China’s Indirect Targeting of India in Agricultural Input Trade

Although China has not officially announced a ban or embargo, its recent economic and regulatory actions appear to disproportionately affect India’s agricultural input trade. The pattern suggests that India is being indirectly singled out in this strategic sector.

Evidence That India Is Being Singled Out

1. Regulatory Barriers Targeting Indian Imports

• China has selectively applied CIQ (Customs Inspection Quarantine) procedures, delaying Indian shipments.
• Indian importers report frequent denials of approvals for WSFs and agrochemicals despite full documentation.
• Suppliers such as Shifang Anda Chemicals Co. Ltd. have faced export permit denials without clear justification.

2. Disproportionate Impact on Indian Agriculture

• China supplies more than 80% of India’s WSF needs.
• Imports of MAP and PN fertilizers from China have dropped by almost 80% year-on-year.
• Horticultural crops grown under drip irrigation systems are the hardest hit by this shortage.

3. No Similar Restrictions on Other Countries

• Other nations—such as those in the Middle East and Russia—continue to import Chinese fertilizers without facing such obstacles, implying India-specific trade barriers.

4. Tactical Use of Trade Leverage

• Experts suggest that China is using its dominance in agri-inputs as a form of economic leverage to slow India’s push for agricultural self-reliance.
• Industry leaders believe this could be an attempt to limit India’s growing presence in global agri-exports.

Conclusion

While China has not explicitly restricted trade with India, the combination of selective export controls, non-transparent regulatory practices, and sudden declines in critical inputs strongly indicates that India is being indirectly targeted in the agricultural sector.

“Economic sovereignty begins when no one else can switch off your supply chain.”