The Bharat Forecast System: Transforming Weather Prediction in India

What is the Bharat Forecast System (BFS)?

The Bharat Forecast System (BFS) represents a significant advancement in weather prediction technology, implemented by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This innovative model boasts a high-resolution grid of 6 km, greatly improving the accuracy of local weather event tracking.

Who developed the BFS model?

The BFS was crafted by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune, marking it as the first indigenous weather model developed entirely in India.

How is BFS better than the current model used by IMD?

Previously, the IMD relied on a model with a resolution of 12 km x 12 km, which encompassed an area of 144 square kilometers for its forecasts. In contrast, BFS narrows this down to 6 km x 6 km, allowing for the detection of weather variations in significantly smaller regions. This improvement facilitates more precise predictions of local rainfall and cyclones.

Why does a smaller resolution matter in weather forecasting?

A smaller resolution translates to greater detail in forecasts. Severe weather events, such as intense rainfall or local cyclones, often occur in specific, limited areas. A finer grid allows for the identification and forecasting of these events with much higher precision.

When will BFS be officially used by IMD?

The official rollout of BFS will take place in New Delhi, with operational use expected from the forthcoming monsoon season.

How was weather forecasting done earlier by IMD?

Prior to BFS, the IMD employed the Coupled Forecasting System (CFS), which was adapted from a model established in the United States. This system was modified to cater to the unique conditions of the Indian monsoon and operated alongside the Global Forecasting System (GFS).

What is meant by a “deterministic” model like BFS?

A deterministic model, such as BFS, utilizes a single set of input data to produce one forecast output. This straightforward approach minimizes confusion, especially when compared to models that generate multiple scenarios.

Since when has BFS been tested?

BFS has been in an experimental phase at IITM since 2022. Early results indicate that it performs better in forecasting weather extremes than previous models.

What benefits will BFS bring during the monsoon?

By enhancing the accuracy of extreme rainfall and cyclone forecasts, BFS will improve warning systems and provide crucial support to farmers, disaster managers, and the general public, ensuring timely updates during severe weather conditions.

Will BFS continue to evolve?

Absolutely. Ongoing efforts aim to further enhance its resolution, targeting improvements to 3 km and potentially 1 km in the future for even sharper forecasts.