In July 2023, the cost of preparing a vegetarian thali at home surged by 28% compared to the previous month. This spike was primarily attributed to the significant increase in prices of essential ingredients such as vegetables and spices, notably tomatoes, onions, and potatoes.
The average cost of a vegetable thali rose from ₹26.3 in June to ₹33.7 in July 2023. This substantial jump was driven largely by the escalating prices of key vegetables and spices that are integral to the thali.
While the cost of non-vegetarian thalis also saw an increase, it was at a more moderate rate of 11% in July 2023. Various factors, including fluctuations in ingredient prices, played a role in this slower increase.
The prices of tomatoes were particularly influential, accounting for a significant portion of the rise in thali costs. In July 2023, the price of tomatoes soared to ₹110 per kilogram from ₹33 in June, which had a substantial impact on the overall cost of vegetarian thalis.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expressed "major concern" regarding the spike in tomato prices in its July bulletin. Historically, tomato prices contribute to the volatility of overall inflation and affect the costs of other vegetables in both retail and wholesale markets. The RBI underscored that unhinged inflation expectations are a significant concern.
Besides tomatoes, the prices of other vegetables like onions and potatoes also saw notable hikes in July 2023. Onion prices increased by 16%, while potato prices rose by 9%, further contributing to the overall rise in thali preparation costs.
Looking ahead, onion prices are forecasted to rise significantly, expected to reach ₹60-70 per kilogram in the retail market starting from early September. This increase is attributed to a likely shortfall in onion supplies, leading to a lean season and tighter market supplies.
Ingredient prices for spices like chilli and cumin also influenced the cost of thalis. In July, chilli prices surged by 69%, while cumin prices jumped by 16%. Despite these increases, their overall contribution to thali costs remained lower due to the lesser quantities used in preparation.
The increase in non-vegetarian thali costs was moderated by the prices of broilers, which constitute more than 50% of the cost. In July, broiler prices likely declined by 3-5% monthly, contributing to a slower pace of increase in the cost of these thalis.
In contrast, there was a 2% monthly decline in vegetable oil prices, providing some relief from the overall increase in costs for both vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis. This decline helped offset a portion of the rising expenses.
Thalinomics refers to the study of food price trends and their impact on household budgets, focusing particularly on the affordability of basic meals. The term is derived from "thali," which denotes a traditional Indian meal encompassing various dishes served on a platter.
The Thali Index is a metric within Thalinomics that measures the cost of a standard vegetarian thali over time, acting as an indicator of meal affordability for the average person. It considers the prices of key ingredients like cereals, vegetables, pulses, and spices that form a typical Indian meal.
Thalinomics and the Thali Index are crucial for policymakers and economists to assess the effects of inflation and food price changes on the general populace. They provide insights into the fluctuations of food prices and their consequences on household budgets, especially for low-income families who spend a considerable portion of their income on food.
The Thali Index calculates the vegetarian thali cost by evaluating current prices of essential food items. By tracking thali costs over time, it allows for a comparison of food price changes and their affordability impact.
Thalinomics and the Thali Index reveal how inflation, supply chain disruptions, and various factors affect food prices. Analyzing these trends enables policymakers to make informed decisions to enhance food affordability and implement strategies to alleviate the pressure of rising prices on vulnerable populations.
The concepts of Thalinomics and the Thali Index also aim to elevate public awareness regarding food price fluctuations and their economic implications. This encourages discussions about living costs and affordability, promoting transparency and accountability in managing food inflation.
Through the lens of Thalinomics and the Thali Index, we gain a practical understanding of food price trends and their effects on the common populace. By analyzing meal affordability, policymakers can strive to ensure food security and tackle the challenges posed by rising food prices within various economies.
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