Reshaping Indian Agriculture: Insights from the ICAR-NIAP Policy Paper

Understanding the ICAR-NIAP Policy Paper

The ICAR-NIAP policy paper titled “Indian Agriculture to 2047 – Reshaping Policies for Sustainable Development” emphasizes a critical need for reallocating agricultural resources. This shift is from traditional staples, such as rice and wheat, toward a diverse range of nutrient-rich crops, including fruits, vegetables, pulses, oilseeds, and animal products. The aim is to prepare for India's projected doubling of food demand by 2047, especially as agricultural land becomes increasingly scarce.

Why Reallocation is Essential

This reallocation is necessary for several reasons:

• Changing Dietary Patterns: Urbanization and rising incomes have driven a demand for more nutrient-dense foods.
• Nutritional Security: Relying solely on traditional staples fails to meet evolving nutritional needs.
• Environmental Pressures: Current farming practices are unsustainable and stress land, water, and energy resources.
• Climate Impact: Extreme weather events are already harming productivity; diverse agricultural systems are needed for resilience.

Projected Food Demand by 2047

The report forecasts significant increases in food demand:

• Overall Food Demand: Expected to more than double.
• Fruits: Demand projected to reach 233 million tonnes (3% annual growth).
• Vegetables: Anticipated demand of 365 million tonnes (2.3% annual growth).
• Pulses: Demand will double to 49 million tonnes.
• Edible Oils: Expected to rise by 50%.
• Sugar: Anticipated increase of 29%.
• Livestock and Fisheries: Their contribution to agricultural GDP is set to grow from 38% to 49%.

Land Availability by 2047

Land availability is expected to change significantly:

• Total Agricultural Land: Will decline to 176 million hectares from the current 180 million hectares.
• Net Sown Area: Will shrink to 138 million hectares.
• Average Landholding Size: Expected to decrease to 0.6 hectares, limiting economies of scale.
• Cropping Intensity: Will increase to 170% from 156%, intensifying input pressure.

Environmental Challenges Ahead

Several environmental challenges are highlighted:

• Water Demand: Agriculture currently consumes 83% of India's water, with demand projected to rise by 18% by 2047.
• Energy and Inputs: Intensified cropping will require more energy and inputs, raising costs and emissions.
• Climate Risks: Droughts and floods have already reduced agricultural productivity growth by 25% over the last 50 years.

Food Security and Policy Recommendations

The report offers several key policy recommendations:

• Resource Reallocation: Gradually reduce dependence on rice and wheat while promoting pulses, oilseeds, fruits, and vegetables.
• Support for Livestock and Fisheries: Increase investment to meet rising demand for animal protein and aquatic foods.
• Revise MSP and Procurement Policies: Expand minimum support price (MSP) coverage for pulses and oilseeds.
• Infrastructure Development: Enhance storage, processing, and cold chain logistics for perishable goods.
• Climate-Resilient Agriculture: Implement better forecasting, drought-resistant crops, and water-efficient technologies.
• Urban Food Systems: Plan for urban demand through peri-urban agriculture and efficient logistics.

Impact of Changing Dietary Preferences

By 2047, nearly half of India's population will reside in urban areas. The increasing health awareness and income levels will shift demand towards fruits, vegetables, dairy, meat, eggs, and fish. Policies must adapt to encourage diversification, develop value chains for perishables, and promote education on balanced diets.

Crops Requiring Increased Focus

The following crops will need more policy attention:

• Fruits and Vegetables: Essential for vitamins and minerals.
• Pulses: Important for affordable protein sources.
• Oilseeds: Necessary to reduce import dependence.
• Livestock and Fisheries: Crucial for protein and income diversification.

Less emphasis should be placed on rice and wheat, particularly in food-insecure regions.

Structural Challenges to Transition

Several structural challenges may hinder these transitions:

• Fragmented Landholdings: Difficulty in diversification and mechanization.
• Market Access Issues: Inadequate access and price incentives discourage farmers from changing crops.
• Environmental Constraints: Water scarcity limits the expansion of certain crops.

Broader Economic Context

India aims to become a developed nation by 2047, necessitating an annual GDP growth of 8%. Rapid urbanization and a population expected to reach 1.6 billion will transform food systems. Strategic agricultural planning is essential for supporting this transformation while ensuring sustainability.