Indus Waters Treaty: Navigating Modern Challenges

Introduction

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960, divided the Indus Basin rivers between India and Pakistan based on the assumption that hydrological patterns and glacier stability would remain unchanged. However, unforeseen factors such as rapid glacier melting, groundwater depletion, and increasing pollution have emerged. Today, the impact of climate change poses significant challenges, necessitating a modern, climate-resilient framework for water management. India's call for a review in 2024 reflects a proactive approach to secure water resources for millions.

Assumptions Made at the Time of the Treaty

When the IWT was signed, there was a lack of comprehensive studies on glacier mass balance. Negotiators believed that the Himalayan glaciers feeding the Indus system were stable and that river flows would remain consistent over time.

Current Significance of Glacier Melt

• The Himalayan glaciers, which contribute 60-70% of the Indus River's summer flow, are rapidly diminishing.
• A study in 2019 revealed that these glaciers are losing approximately 8 billion tons of ice annually.
• According to the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development, glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan region melted 65% faster from 2011 to 2020 than in the preceding decade.
• In 2023, global glaciers experienced the largest mass loss in half a century, releasing over 600 gigatons of water.

Impact of Glacier Melting on the Indus System

• Short-term Effects: Increased river flows due to accelerated melting.
• Long-term Effects: Permanent reduction in river water availability as glaciers retreat, threatening supplies during dry seasons.

Dependence on the Indus Basin

Currently, over 300 million people in India and Pakistan rely on the Indus River Basin for drinking water, agriculture, and livelihoods. This number has significantly increased since the 1960s, when Pakistan's population was just 46 million and India's was 436 million. Today, Pakistan's population exceeds 240 million, while India's has reached 1.4 billion.

Importance of Groundwater in the Indus Basin

• Groundwater extraction constitutes about 48% of total water withdrawals in the Indus Basin.
• Overextraction is particularly critical in the Punjab region, jeopardizing food security for both nations.
• The original treaty does not address groundwater use, creating a significant management gap.

Climate Change and Indus Water Availability

• Increased seasonal variability in water flows.
• More frequent and severe droughts and floods.
• Ongoing water scarcity impacting agriculture, industry, and public health.
• Particularly, Pakistan faces risks as it relies on the Indus for over 75% of its irrigation needs.

Shortcomings of the Original Treaty

• No provisions for monitoring glaciers.
• Lack of mechanisms to manage groundwater depletion.
• Absence of clauses addressing water pollution control.
• No adaptive frameworks for changing hydrology due to climate change.

India's Concerns Regarding the Treaty

India is increasingly concerned that:

• Climate change is permanently altering river flows.
• Groundwater overuse is creating hidden stress.
• The original assumptions about water availability are outdated.
• Infrastructure development necessitates improved cooperative frameworks.
• Future water security requires updated, science-based governance.

India's Reform Proposal for the Indus Waters Treaty

India advocates for:

• Climate-proofing the treaty through glacier and river monitoring.
• Joint disaster preparedness for floods and droughts.
• Managing groundwater as a shared and regulated resource.
• Integrating pollution control and ecosystem protection into basin management.
• Modernizing cooperation mechanisms to prevent conflict and promote sustainability.

India focuses on protecting essential water resources not only for the present but also for future generations across borders.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q1. What is the Indus Waters Treaty?
Answer: The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, allocates the use of six rivers in the Indus Basin between India and Pakistan, aiming for peaceful water sharing despite ongoing tensions.

Q2. How has glacier melting affected the Indus River Basin?
Answer: Glacier melting has led to increased short-term river flows but poses long-term risks of reduced water availability, threatening agriculture and drinking water supplies in the region.

Q3. Why is groundwater management crucial in the Indus Basin?
Answer: Groundwater management is essential due to over-extraction, which accounts for about 48% of total water withdrawals, risking food security and sustainable water access for millions.

Q4. What are India’s main concerns about the Indus Waters Treaty today?
Answer: India is worried about outdated assumptions regarding water availability, the impacts of climate change on river flows, and the need for improved cooperative frameworks in infrastructure development.