India is rapidly emerging as the world’s primary engine of energy demand growth, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The World Energy Outlook 2025 projects sustained expansion across oil, gas, coal, and clean power sectors through 2035. Rising incomes, urbanisation, and a transition towards modern energy systems are redefining India’s role in global energy markets.
The IEA identifies India as the largest driver of global oil demand growth up to 2035. Oil consumption is expected to rise from approximately 5.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2024 to nearly 8 mbpd by 2035.
This surge is attributed to growing vehicle ownership, expanding aviation networks, increased petrochemical and plastics production, and the wider use of LPG for cooking. Nearly half of the world’s incremental oil demand in this period will originate from India alone, cementing its position at the heart of global energy dynamics.
Despite policy efforts to boost domestic exploration and production, India’s crude oil import dependence is likely to deepen — from about 87% in 2024 to nearly 92% by 2035. However, the country’s refining capacity is simultaneously expanding, from around 6 mbpd in 2024 to about 7.5 mbpd by 2035.
This growth will strengthen India’s status as a major exporter of refined fuels and a critical “swing supplier” for global energy markets, enhancing both economic and strategic leverage.
India’s natural gas demand is projected to almost double, reaching about 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035, largely driven by city-gas distribution networks and industrial usage. LNG imports are expected to surge to around 50 bcm to meet rising demand.
Meanwhile, coal demand is set to grow moderately, aided by ongoing mining expansions and capacity upgrades such as the Gevra mine project. This will support industrial and power sector needs while aiming to reduce dependence on coal imports.
India has already achieved 50% non-fossil fuel-based power capacity, well ahead of its 2030 target. Continued investment in solar, wind, and hydro energy is expected to push non-fossil sources to around 70% of total installed capacity by 2035, with renewables driving nearly all new additions.
Carbon emissions are projected to peak around 2040, as India advances toward its net-zero 2070 goal. Key initiatives such as expanding nuclear power capacity, increasing ethanol blending, accelerating battery storage deployment, and modernising the power transmission network will balance continued fossil-fuel use with a steady, sustainable energy transition.
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