The political scenario in South Asia is currently experiencing significant transformations, introducing new challenges to India’s foreign policy. The recent resignation of Bangladesh’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, signifies the loss of a crucial ally for India in the region. This change, coupled with political developments in the Maldives, Nepal, and Myanmar, highlights China's increasing influence in India's neighborhood. These shifts demand a reassessment of India’s diplomatic strategies to safeguard its strategic interests.
Sheikh Hasina's resignation has led to political upheaval in Bangladesh, ending a period of relative stability in its relations with India. Her consistent support had been pivotal for India, but now uncertainty looms as the opposition party, Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh National Party (BNP), has historically opposed Indian influence. The BNP's recent campaigns against Indian goods could foster a less favorable atmosphere for India.
In September 2023, Mohamed Muizzu assumed the presidency of the Maldives with a pro-China stance. His administration has made several moves suggesting a pivot away from India, including the acquisition of military drones from Turkey, expelling Indian military personnel, and allowing Chinese vessels in Maldivian ports. These actions signal a growing alignment with China and a cooling of relations with India.
With K.P. Sharma Oli's re-election as Nepal’s Prime Minister in 2024, India faces challenges in maintaining amicable relations. Oli has previously prioritized closer ties with China and has been vocal about reclaiming disputed territories with India, such as Kalapani, Lipulekh, and Limpiyadhura. Furthermore, his administration has downplayed the impact of the COVID-19 strain from India, further straining diplomatic ties.
Myanmar has been engulfed in a civil war since the military took power in 2021, disrupting India’s infrastructure projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project. Additionally, security concerns have risen due to Indian insurgent groups along the India-Myanmar border, prompting considerations for border fencing.
The developments in Bangladesh, the Maldives, Nepal, and Myanmar pose substantial challenges for India. The growing alignment of these countries with China could diminish India’s influence across the region. The loss of reliable partners and strained relations with neighbors complicate India’s strategic calculations. India may need to adopt innovative diplomatic and strategic approaches to navigate this evolving geopolitical landscape effectively and protect its interests.
India is navigating a complex regional environment following Sheikh Hasina's departure and shifting alliances among neighboring countries. With China’s influence on the rise, India must reassess its foreign policy strategies to maintain regional stability and protect its interests. The coming years will require skillful diplomacy and strategic foresight to manage these evolving dynamics effectively.
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