How Climate Change is Reshaping Indian Agriculture: A Deep Dive into Crop Production Variability

Climate Change and Its Impact on Indian Crop Production

India is witnessing substantial fluctuations in the production of major crops, primarily due to climate change. Recent studies highlight that more than half of these fluctuations can be attributed to climatic factors, which affect various crops differently.

Rice Production Trends

Rice production in India is significantly influenced by relative humidity. Research indicates that 51% of the variation in rice yields is due to climatic factors. Over the past thirty years, an increase in relative humidity has positively impacted rice production.

Challenges Facing Wheat Production

Wheat production, on the other hand, faces challenges with 65% of its production variation linked to climate change. Rising temperatures and changing humidity levels have contributed to a decrease in wheat yields, posing a threat to this staple crop.

Positive Impacts on Tea Production

Tea production has seen benefits from the increased relative humidity, with 55% of its yield variation connected to climatic factors. This positive trend is crucial given tea's economic significance in India.

Impact on Small Millets

Small millets are adversely affected by climate change, with 60% of production variation due to climate factors. These crops are particularly sensitive to fluctuations in temperature and humidity, resulting in reduced yields.

Resilient Crops: Maize, Potato, and Oil Seeds

Despite climate challenges, crops like maize, potato, and oil seeds have shown an upward trend in production. Their adaptability to changing climatic conditions has contributed to more stable yields.

Decline in Sugarcane, Gram, Jute, and Arhar Production

However, crops such as sugarcane, gram, jute, and arhar have experienced a declining production trend from 1991 to 2020. Variability in climate, especially shifts in temperature and humidity, has negatively affected their yields.

This comprehensive study was funded by the Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR) and used data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) Commodities Database and NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources database, covering the period from 1981 to 2021. The findings underscore the national concern about climate vulnerability in India and highlight the urgent need for increased climate action to mitigate these impacts.