Examining the Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact and Its Impact on India

Saudi-Pakistan Mutual Defence Pact and Its Implications for India and the Region

Synopsis

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have signed a mutual defence pact following Israel’s attack on Qatar, raising questions about US security guarantees in West Asia. The agreement underscores Riyadh’s increasing reliance on Islamabad, particularly its nuclear deterrent potential, while reflecting a gradual shift away from Washington.

For India, the pact carries significant regional security implications: it strengthens the Saudi-Pakistani bloc, could embolden anti-India narratives, reshape West Asian power balances, and reignite concerns about nuclear proliferation under the shadow of a possible “Greater Israel” project.

FAQs

1. What does the defence pact include?

The pact stipulates that aggression against either Saudi Arabia or Pakistan will be considered an aggression against both. It emphasizes joint deterrence, strategic cooperation, and closer defence ties, effectively rejuvenating their decades-old partnership.

2. Why is it significant for Saudi Arabia?

Saudi Arabia, lacking nuclear weapons, benefits from Pakistan’s nuclear “deterrence shadow”. This indirectly provides Riyadh with a strategic hedge without formally breaching global non-proliferation norms.

3. How does the pact relate to the idea of “Greater Israel”?

Amid debates about Israeli leaders pushing for a “Greater Israel” beyond occupied Palestinian territories, Arab states perceive existential threats. The pact positions Pakistan as a symbolic deterrent, indicating that Riyadh and Islamabad aim to counterbalance Israeli ambitions.

4. What are the regional consequences?

The pact could reshape the West Asian security environment by:

• Deepening divisions between Israel and Arab states.

• Reducing US influence, as Riyadh signals dissatisfaction with Washington’s security guarantees.

• Raising risks of regional conflicts with potential nuclear undertones.

5. What is India’s standpoint?

India remains cautious, recognizing the pact’s potential to destabilize regional security. It is likely to:

• Monitor implications for energy security and the safety of the large Indian diaspora in the Gulf.

• Reassess strategic relations with Saudi Arabia while simultaneously strengthening ties with Israel.

• Factor in Pakistan’s elevated role in Riyadh’s defence policy, which could translate into renewed anti-India rhetoric.