Evaluating the Paris Agreement: Milestones and Future Directions

Paris Agreement at 10: Evaluating Global Climate Governance

The year 2025 marks a decade since the signing of the Paris Agreement. This landmark milestone illustrates how international environmental governance can shape pro-climate policies, promote global cooperation, and influence national development pathways amid an escalating climate crisis.

Background

Global climate governance has undergone significant evolution over the last fifty years. Starting from the Club of Rome Report in 1972 and the Brundtland Commission in 1987, to legally binding frameworks like the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and the Paris Agreement in 2015, international climate action has matured both institutionally and normatively. These developments established a robust scientific consensus on the urgent need to control carbon emissions to limit global temperature rise and mitigate adverse climate impacts.

The Paris Agreement marked a paradigmatic shift by creating a universal, legally binding framework with nearly universal participation. However, despite notable progress, the world is still far from achieving planetary safety from climate change. Persistently rising emissions, inadequate climate finance, and ongoing disagreements between developed and developing nations expose structural gaps within the Paris framework, necessitating critical reassessment and corrective action.

About the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), established in 1992. It was adopted by 195 Parties at COP21 in Paris in 2015 and came into force in 2016. Its main objective is to limit the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while striving to limit warming to 1.5°C.

The Agreement succeeded the Kyoto Protocol, transitioning from a top-down model to a bottom-up framework where countries define their own targets through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). For the first time, it created a common framework for both developed and developing nations for mitigation and adaptation while respecting national circumstances. Key provisions include Mitigation and Adaptation (Articles 4 & 7), Loss and Damage (Article 8), and the Global Stocktake (Article 14), which periodically evaluates collective progress.

Achievements of the Paris Agreement

• Mainstreaming Climate Action: Climate change has become a central global policy priority through mechanisms like the Global Stocktake and enhanced scientific reporting.
• 1.5°C Consensus: The Agreement solidified scientific and political consensus on the critical need to limit global warming to 1.5°C, with 2°C as an upper threshold.
• Momentum for Net-Zero Targets: Paris catalyzed long-term climate commitments, encouraging countries and corporations to announce net-zero targets—2050 for the EU, US, and Canada; 2060 for China and Russia; and 2070 for India.
• Carbon Markets: Article 6 created a framework for international carbon trading and established a UN-backed carbon crediting mechanism.
• Universal Participation: Unlike Kyoto, the Paris Agreement secured participation from 195 Parties and actively involved non-state actors such as corporations, civil society, and NGOs.
• Climate Finance Commitment: Developed countries pledged to mobilize USD 100 billion annually. This target was eventually met in 2022, according to OECD estimates.
• NDC Framework: NDCs emerged as a significant innovation, promoting domestic climate legislation, policy reforms, and sectoral initiatives across nations.

Shortcomings of the Paris Agreement

• Rising Global Emissions: Annual global emissions increased from 49 billion tonnes to 53 billion tonnes, indicating limited real-world mitigation impact.
• Off-Track Temperature Goals: Current trajectories suggest the world is unlikely to meet the 1.5°C target, potentially breaching the 2°C limit.
• Dilution of Climate Justice: The flexible interpretation of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) diluted binding obligations on developed countries compared to the Kyoto regime.
• Adaptation–Mitigation Financing Gap: Developing nations face a financing gap of nearly USD 1 trillion for mitigation and USD 200 billion for adaptation, which continues to widen.
• Delayed Operationalization: Critical instruments, such as the Loss and Damage Fund, became operational only in 2023, eight years after the Agreement.
• Limited Technology Transfer: Barriers like intellectual property rights and inadequate infrastructure continue to hinder technology diffusion to developing countries.
• Poor Indicator Performance: None of the 45 indicators identified under the Paris framework are on track to be achieved by 2030.

Way Forward

• Universal Carbon Pricing: Policymakers have proposed a global carbon price mechanism to address emissions more effectively than fragmented national targets.
• Sector-Specific Agreements: Complementary agreements targeting high-emission sectors could reinforce the Paris framework.
• Bridging the Adaptation–Mitigation Gap: Achieving Paris goals requires mobilizing climate finance at a trillion-dollar scale, especially for vulnerable small island and developing nations.
• Leveraging Corporations and Industry: Given their significant emissions footprint, corporations must play a central role through regulation, disclosure norms, and public–private partnerships.
• Upholding Climate Justice: Recent advisory opinions and rulings by the International Court of Justice reinforce the responsibility of historically high emitters to compensate vulnerable nations.

Conclusion

Despite its limitations, the Paris Agreement established a durable foundation for multilateral climate governance. Its legacy is visible in initiatives like the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund and evolving international legal norms on climate responsibility. The next phase must focus on closing implementation gaps, strengthening accountability, and building consensus for next-generation climate governance.