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China's Mega Dam on Yarlung Tsangpo: Threat to India's Security

Geopolitical implications of China's hydroelectric dam project on the Yarlung Tsangpo river

China's Mega Dam on Yarlung Tsangpo: Threat to India's Security

  • 10 Nov, 2025
  • 403

CHINA’S MEGA DAM ON YARLUNG TSANGPO: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

What is Happening?

China has begun constructing a massive hydroelectric dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet. Once completed, it will generate approximately 60,000 MW of power, making it one of the largest hydroelectric projects in the world.

The Yarlung Tsangpo flows eastward across Tibet before entering India, where it becomes the Siang River in Arunachal Pradesh and later the Brahmaputra in Assam, before continuing into Bangladesh.

China Yarlung Tsangpo Dam

Why is India Concerned?

1. Geopolitical Risk

The dam lies in a sensitive border region, close to Arunachal Pradesh. Chief Minister Pema Khandu described it as a potential “water bomb,” expressing fears that China could use water release or blockage as a form of geopolitical pressure.

2. Water Security

India worries that large-scale damming may reduce water flow into the Brahmaputra, affecting agriculture, ecosystems, and livelihoods in the Northeast. Seasonal flow changes could intensify both drought and flood risks.

3. Absence of a Water Treaty

There is no formal water-sharing treaty between India and China. Unlike the Indus Waters Treaty (with Pakistan), there is no binding legal framework obligating China to maintain the natural flow of transboundary rivers.

India’s Response

To safeguard its interests, India is accelerating the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project in Arunachal Pradesh, with central government backing. The project aims to:

  • Create a defensive hydrological buffer
  • Ensure water storage and controlled flow during lean seasons
  • Support flood regulation and regional energy generation

Different Views Within India

Pema Khandu (CM, Arunachal Pradesh) has warned of potential ecological and security threats, calling the Chinese project an “existential risk.”
Himanta Biswa Sarma (CM, Assam), however, has downplayed the danger, noting that 65–70% of Brahmaputra’s water originates from rainfall within India, not Tibet.

What Could Happen Next?

  • Possible rise in India-China tensions over water diplomacy.
  • Calls for an international or bilateral water-sharing framework.
  • Increased Indian investment in flood control and reservoir projects across the Northeast.
  • Greater focus on monitoring transboundary river flows using satellite and AI-based tools.

A wise public servant anticipates not just the flood of water, but the flood of consequences that follow in its wake.

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