The Arctic is undergoing a significant transformation, evolving from a zone of scientific cooperation to a battleground for geopolitical interests. The melting of ice has unveiled new maritime routes, most notably the Northern Sea Route (NSR), prompting fierce competition for resources and trade opportunities. Major global powers, including the US, Russia, and China, are ramping up their military presence in the region, making it a strategic flashpoint.
For India, the militarisation of the Arctic poses a considerable risk of marginalisation in global governance related to the region. As military powers assert dominance, non-Arctic nations like India could find themselves excluded from critical conversations regarding polar navigation, resource exploitation, and security matters. This exclusion threatens to undermine India's access to essential shipping routes and collaborative scientific initiatives.
The potential year-round viability of Arctic sea lanes, such as the NSR, could fundamentally alter global trade trajectories, shifting focus northward and diminishing reliance on traditional Indian Ocean routes. This shift may adversely affect India’s maritime influence and connectivity projects, including SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) and IPOI (Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative).
Currently, India maintains a limited yet symbolic presence in the Arctic region. It operates a research facility in Svalbard, participates in polar scientific expeditions, and holds Observer status in the Arctic Council. However, these initiatives are predominantly scientific and lack a robust strategic framework.
While India's Arctic policy emphasizes climate science and sustainable development, it inadequately addresses the strategic and geopolitical dynamics shaping the region. As other nations align their Arctic strategies with military and trade objectives, India's approach appears increasingly outdated and disconnected.
To enhance its Arctic strategy, India could adopt a three-part approach:
The growing collaboration between Russia and China in the Arctic raises alarms for India. Such coordination may dominate Arctic governance and control vital trade routes, potentially diminishing India's influence and complicating its broader Indo-Pacific strategy, particularly if China's Arctic ambitions align with its assertiveness in the Indian Ocean.
The connectivity provided by the Arctic to Europe and North America via new sea routes links it to the Indo-Pacific region. By reinforcing its engagement in the Arctic, India can bolster its position as a maritime power, supporting its strategic vision of a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific.
While India is not entirely excluded from Arctic influence, its contributions to scientific research and participation in observer-level discussions are limited. Without a more robust strategic engagement, India risks being sidelined in future governance frameworks that will dictate Arctic trade, regulations, and infrastructure developments.
India must continue to champion climate priorities in the Arctic while integrating these objectives with its geopolitical goals. By collaborating with democratic partners in the region and investing in Arctic-related infrastructure and research, India can achieve both environmental sustainability and strategic advantages.
"Vision without action is a daydream. Action without vision is a nightmare." - Japanese Proverb
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