Analyzing India's Total Fertility Rate and Its Implications

Current Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in India

The Total Fertility Rate in India stands at 2.0, as per the Sample Registration System (SRS) 2021, a figure that remains unchanged from 2020. The TFR refers to the average number of children that a woman is expected to have during her lifetime.

State-wise TFR Analysis

• Highest TFR: Bihar at 3.0
• Lowest TFR: West Bengal and Delhi at 1.4

Trends in Child Population (0–14 years)

There has been a notable decline in the child population, decreasing from 41.2% in 1971 to 24.8% in 2021. This trend indicates a significant reduction in the share of younger individuals in the overall population over time.

Changes in Working-age Population (15–59 years)

The working-age population has seen an increase from 53.4% to 66.2% during the same period, showcasing a rise in the proportion of economically active individuals within the demographic.

Growth Trends in the Elderly Population

As for the elderly population, those aged 60 and above have grown significantly:

• From 5.3% to 9.5% for the 65+ group
• From 6% to 9% for the 60+ group

States with the highest elderly populations include:

• Kerala: 14.9%
• Tamil Nadu: 12.9%
• Himachal Pradesh: 12.3%

Conversely, states with the lowest elderly populations are:

• Bihar: 6.9%
• Assam: 7%
• Delhi: 7.1%

Mean Age at Effective Marriage

The mean age at effective marriage for females has risen from 19.3 years in 1990 to 22.5 years in 2021. This increase reflects shifts in social norms and educational attainment across the country.

Significance of a TFR of 2.1

A TFR of 2.1 is recognized as the replacement level, indicating that the population would replace itself without growth or decline. Several Indian states, like Kerala, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, and West Bengal, have already reached or fallen below this level.

Government Response to Demographic Shifts

In response to these demographic changes, the government announced during the 2024 interim budget the formation of a high-powered committee to examine population growth and demographic shifts, although the details regarding its composition are still awaited.

Significance of the SRS Report

The SRS is recognized as the largest demographic survey in the country, providing annual estimates of fertility and mortality at both national and state levels. The 2021 report is based on 8,842 sample units and encompasses a population of approximately 84 lakh.

Future Demographic Changes

A more comprehensive understanding of demographic shifts will emerge following the next Census, which is due after the last one conducted in 2011. Current indicators suggest a transition towards an aging population, declining fertility rates, and a growing working-age population.