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Analyzing India's Industrial Growth Slowdown in October 2025

Insights into Sectoral Performance and Economic Implications

Analyzing India's Industrial Growth Slowdown in October 2025

  • 02 Dec, 2025
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India's Industrial Growth Decline in October 2025

India’s industrial sector experienced a modest growth of only 0.4% in October 2025, marking its slowest progress in the last 14 months. This data has been released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). The sluggish growth can primarily be attributed to weak manufacturing performance alongside declines in mining and electricity production.

Comparison with Previous Year

In October 2024, industrial output was significantly higher at 3.7%, showcasing a stark contrast to this year's figures. Additionally, September 2025 saw a growth rate of 4%—up from an earlier estimate of 3.2%. The last instance of such low industrial growth was recorded in August 2024, where growth was nearly negligible.

Factors Contributing to Weak Industrial Growth

Experts suggest that the current weak growth reflects an uneven and fragile industrial recovery. Key factors influencing this trend include:

  • Lower domestic demand
  • Uncertain global economic conditions
  • Challenges faced by specific industries
  • Fewer working days in October due to festivals
  • Delayed withdrawal of monsoon affecting mining and electricity output

Economist N.R. Bhanumurthy noted that the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) is based on production volumes, and the reduced number of working days during the festival season led to decreased output.

Sector-Wise Performance in October 2025

The performance across various industrial sectors in October displayed mixed results:

Manufacturing Sector

The manufacturing sector, which constitutes approximately 78% of the IIP, only recorded a growth of 1.8% in October, significantly lower than:

  • 5.6% in September
  • 4.4% in October last year
Mining Sector

Mining output fell by 1.8% in October, compared to a decrease of 0.4% in September and a growth of 0.9% during the same month last year.

Electricity Sector

Electricity production saw a significant decline of 6.9% in October, while it had shown growth of 3.1% in September and 2% last year.

Economic Outlook

Madan Sabnavis, the chief economist at Bank of Baroda, remarked that the industrial numbers provide mixed signals. While strong GST collections indicate robust consumption, the IIP numbers showcase a concerning slowdown in production. He emphasized that the reduction in working days and rainfall impacts contributed to the decline in mining and electricity output.

Performance by Use-Based Categories

Different categories of goods exhibited varied performance in October:

Goods That Experienced Growth
  • Capital goods: Up by 2.4%
  • Intermediate goods: Up by 0.9%
  • Infrastructure/Construction goods: Up by 7.9%
  • Consumer durables: Slight fall of 0.5%, yet better than last month’s strong growth
Goods That Declined
  • Primary goods: Down by 0.6%
  • Consumer non-durables: Down by 4.4%

Future Expectations

Looking ahead, economists anticipate that the period from October to December (Q3) will be crucial for industrial performance. They predict that the newly implemented GST system and reduced income tax rates may enhance consumer spending, thereby stimulating industrial growth. This industrial data emerges on the heels of India reporting a robust GDP growth of 8.2% for the July-September period, indicating that the overall economy remains resilient.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q1. What was India's industrial growth rate in October 2025?
Answer: India's industrial growth rate in October 2025 was only 0.4%, marking the slowest growth in the last 14 months.

Q2. Which sectors contributed to the decline in industrial growth?
Answer: The decline in industrial growth was primarily due to weak performance in the manufacturing, mining, and electricity sectors.

Q3. How does the current industrial growth compare to last year?
Answer: Last year, industrial output in October was 3.7%, significantly higher than the current 0.4%, indicating a notable decrease in growth.

Q4. What factors are affecting industrial growth in India?
Answer: Key factors include lower domestic demand, uncertain global conditions, and fewer working days due to festivals impacting production.

Q5. What is expected for the industrial sector in the upcoming months?
Answer: Economists expect that the impact of new GST regulations and reduced income tax rates may boost consumer spending and support industrial growth.

UPSC Practice MCQs

Question 1: What was India's industrial growth rate in October 2025?
A) 1.8%
B) 2.4%
C) 4%
D) 0.4%
Correct Answer: D

Question 2: Which sector saw a decline in output by 6.9% in October 2025?
A) Mining
B) Manufacturing
C) Electricity
D) Capital goods
Correct Answer: C

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